Probability And Limit Poker

Probability is the likelihood or chance that something is the case or will happen. It is a number from 0 to 1 inclusive, usually expressed as a fraction or percentage. This is the ratio of the number of chances of a specific event to the total number of chances possible.

The probability of an event is a ratio that tells how likely it is that an event will take place. The numerator is the # of favorable outcomes and the denominator is the # of possible outcomes.

Here is an example of how probability can be used in poker:

What is the probability of being dealt two aces in a game of Limit Hold’em?

There are 4 favorable outcomes for the first card, As Ah Ad Ac. There are 52 possible outcomes, so 4/52 is the probability of being dealt one ace. It can also be expressed as .0769 or 7.69%. If your first card is the As, you now need to satisfy the second condition. This time there are 3 favorable outcomes, Ah Ad Ac, and 51 possible outcomes. The probability of being dealt a second ace after being dealt the first ace is 3/51, 0.0588, or 5.88%. So the odds of both conditions occurring are (4/52)*(3/51) = 12/2652 =1/221(0.0045248 or 0.45248%)

In poker terms, probability is most often used to identify how far ahead or behind you are in the hand. In the next few lessons we will look at how you can calculate the probability that you will win or lose a hand. Then you can take this figure, covert it to odds, and compare it to the pot odds.