Converting Outs Into Percentages

In the previous lesson, we learned how to count outs. Once you have counted the number of possible outs, the next step is to calculate how likely you are to win the hand.

If you remember in Lesson 3, we mentioned that probability is a number from 0 to 1 inclusive. The three most common ways probability is expressed is as a number, a fraction, or as a percentage. The probability that a coin will land on heads when flipped is: 0.5, 1/2, or 50%.

In the context of poker, probability is most often used to determine the likelihood or chance that a card or cards will hit the board. It is usually expressed as a percentage and is the ratio of the number of outs to the total number of unexposed cards. The numerator is the # of outs and the denominator is the number of unexposed cards. This is how you do it with one card to come:

Probability = (# of outs) / (# of unexposed cards)

Step1: Count the number of outs.

Step 2: Calculate the number of unexposed cards.

Step 3: Divide the (# of outs) by the (# of unexposed cards)

Example 1: You have 2c2s vs KcQs and the board is Kd 4d Jc 6s.

Step1: You have 2 outs, that will give you the winning hand, trip twos.

Step 2: There are 52 cards in the deck, 8 have been exposed to you. That leaves 44 unexposed cards.

Step 3: The probability of you winning the hand is 2/44 or 0.045 or 4.5%.

Example 2:

If there are two cards to come:

Probability of hitting your card on either the turn or river = [(# of outs) / (# of unexposed cards at time of flop)] + [(# of outs) / (# of unexposed cards at turn)